Tau ntau xyoo dhau los, kev lag luam kho qhov muag fiber ntau thiab cable ua haujlwm hauv cov neeg yuav khoom lag luam. Overcapacity, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Suav teb, khaws cov nqi kev nyuaj siab thiab margins nyias. Lub sijhawm ntawd dhau lawm. Raws li ntawm nruab nrab -2026, lub ntiaj teb optical fiber ntau cov saw hlau tau ntsib nws qhov kev nruj tshaj plaws hauv kev nco tsis ntev los no - uas tau tsav tsis yog los ntawm ib qho xwm txheej, tab sis los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm AI infrastructure nthuav dav, kev tiv thaiv kev siv fiber ntau, thiab cov dej ntws hauv cov iav preform manufacturing uas tsis tuaj yeem daws tau sai.
Kab lus no tshuaj xyuas lub zog tom qab qhov tsis txaus tam sim no, cov ntaub ntawv tus nqi qhia peb li cas, thiab nws txhais li cas rau cov tswv lag luam hauv xov tooj, hyperscalers, thiab cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho uas nyob ntawm kev ntseeg tau.optical fiber ntau cablemuab.
Dab tsi yog Tsav Fiber Xav Tau hauv 2026?
Cov khoom siv tam sim no- qhov xav tau qhov tsis sib xws tsis yog ib qho kev rov zoo li qub. Nws qhia txog kev hloov pauv hauv kev siv fiber ntau optical li cas thoob ntiaj teb. Peb lub cav xav tau sib txawv ua haujlwm ib txhij, txhua tus nrog nws tus kheej txoj kev loj hlob.
AI Cov Chaw Cov Ntaub Ntawv: Qhov Loj Tshaj Plaws Tshiab ntawm Kev Siv Fiber
Kev tsim kho sai sai- tawm ntawm AI kev cob qhia pawg thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse tau dhau los ua tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm kev xav tau fiber ntau. Tsis zoo li cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv huab cua ib txwm muaj, AI-cov chaw kho kom zoo siv fiber ntau ntau. Raws li STL's CEO Rahul Puri,AI- tsom cov chaw zov me nyuam xav tau kwv yees li 36 npaug ntau fiber ntaudua li cov pa CPU-raws li racks, vim muaj qhov chaw nres nkoj siab thiab tsis yog - thaiv cov ntaub tsim los ntawm GPU pawg.
Raws li CRU cov ntaub ntawv hais txog kev lag luam tshaj tawm, thoob ntiaj teb cov ntaub ntawv chaw fiber ntau xav tau nce li ntawm 76% xyoo-ntawm- xyoo hauv 2025, thiab ntu no tau kwv yees kwv yees li 30% ntawm tag nrho cov fiber ntau thoob ntiaj teb xav tau los ntawm 2027 - nce los ntawm tsawg dua 5% hauv 2024. Qhov ntsuas ntawm kev nqis peev hauv Lub Ib Hlis 2, 2024.Corning thiab Meta tshaj tawm daim ntawv cog lus ntau xyoomuaj nqis txog li $6 nphom rau cov khoom siv kho qhov muag, cable, thiab cov khoom sib txuas los txhawb Meta's AI cov ntaub ntawv chaw nthuav dav thoob plaws Tebchaws Meskas.
Rau cov ntaub ntawv chaw npaj cov phiaj xwm ntsuas cov tswv yim cabling, qhov no txhais tau tias siab -cov kev daws teeb meem fiber ntau - suav nrogribbon fiber ntau optic cablethiabMPO/MTP sib dhos- tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb es tsis yog xaiv tau. AI pawg architectures nrog kaum tawm txhiab tus GPU nodes xav tau fiber ntau suav rau ib lub khib uas yuav raug suav hais tias yog huab cua tsuas yog ob xyoos dhau los.
Cov ntawv thov kev tiv thaiv: Qhov nce ntawm Fiber-Tethered Drones
Ib qho kev sib tham tsawg dua tab sis qhov xav tau tseem ceeb ntawm tus neeg tsav tsheb yog kev siv tub rog ntawm fiber ntau hauv fiber ntau -coj drone systems. Fiber-tethered drones - nrog rau loitering munitions thiab advanced FPV platforms - siv optical fiber ua jam-proof, low-latency data link. Txhua lub drone tuaj yeem haus tau ntau pua mus rau ntau dua ob txhiab meters ntawm kev khoov tshwj xeeb -sensitive fiber ntau rau ib lub hom phiaj.
Thaum cov tub rog tub rog siv ntau pua lossis ntau txhiab lub tshuab zoo li no hauv ib lub lis piam, kev siv fiber ntau ntau heev. Raws li CRU txoj kev tsom xam ntawm 2025 kev ua lag luam hloov pauv, rub rau G.657.A2 fiber ntau los ntawm cov ntawv thov drone tau pab txhawb rau kev lag luam.Kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv fiber ntauthoob plaws Suav tuam txhab lag luam, leej twg kho cov khoom tsim tawm ntauwd kom tau raws li qhov kev thov no - ntxiv cov khoom nruj me ntsis ntawm tus qauv G.652.D fiber ntau rau kev xa xov tooj thiab kev xa xov broadband.
Kev nthuav dav dav dav: BEAD thiab Kev Lag Luam Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam
Kev thov kev sib tham hauv xov tooj tsis tau ploj mus. Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, $ 42.45 billionBroadband Equity, Access, thiab Deployment (BEAD) programtab tom nkag mus rau nws cov theem ua tiav, nrog 44 lub xeev thiab thaj chaw tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus khoom plig txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2026. Thaum kev xa tawm tau qeeb dua li qhov tau npaj tseg, qhov kev pab cuam xav kom tsim cov fiber ntau xav tau raws li kev tsim kho pib thoob plaws ntau lub xeev.
Thoob plaws ntiaj teb, kev siv xov tooj hluav taws xob tseem muaj zog hauv kev lag luam uas tseem ceeb tshaj plaws digital sovereignty thiab kev sib txuas hauv nroog. Rau cov neeg ua haujlwm siv fiber ntau - mus rau - lub - hauv tsev network, kev nkag tau yooj yim rautib - hom fiber ntauthiab cov khoom siv cable sab nraum zoov tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev npaj.
Dab tsi Tus Nqi Cov Ntaub Ntawv Qhia
Tus nqi yog qhov qhia meej tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv nruj npaum li cas tau dhau los.
Raws li CRU, qhov chaw tus nqi ntawm G.652.D liab qab fiber ntau hauv Suav teb tau txog kwv yees li 83.40 ib fiber ntau-kilometer hauv lub Peb Hlis 2026 - sawv cev rau qhov nce ntxiv ntawm ntau dua 400% txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2025 thiab dhau lub voj voog dhau los qhov keeb kwm siab thawj zaug. Qhov no yog qhov tseem ceeb tshwj xeeb vim tias, raws li UBS cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau taw qhia, Suav G.652.D tus nqi tau dhau European theem pib txij lub Ib Hlis 2026, qhov kev txhim kho tsis pom txij li xyoo 2018.
Tus nqi txav tsis nyob hauv Suav teb. CRU cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias European G.652.D cov nqi tau nce kwv yees li 136% thaum lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Peb Hlis 2026, thaum US cov nqi kuj tau nce siab. Cov fibers tshwj xeeb xws li G.657.A1 thiab G.657.A2, uas yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau cov ntaub ntawv chaw thiab kev siv sab hauv tsev, tau ntsib kev nce siab ntxiv vim lawv siv hauv ob qho tib si AI infrastructure thiab kev siv tiv thaiv.
Rau cov neeg yuav khoom siv ntau xyoo ntawm kev ruaj khov lossis txo tus nqi fiber ntau, qhov no sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam.
Lub Preform Bottleneck: Vim li cas Kev Muab Khoom Tsis Tau Teb sai
Qhov kev txwv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm kev ua lag luam 2026 tsis yog qhov ntim ntawm kev thov xwb - nws yog qhov nruj ntawm cov khoom siv ntws.
Optical fiber ntau pib nrog iav preforms, uas suav txog kwv yees li 60-70% ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom fiber ntau. Preform manufacturing yog technically complex, peev -intensive, thiab concentrated ntawm ib tug kuj tsawg ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb. Tom qab xyoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis thiab kev ua tsov rog (kwv yees li 2019-2024), ntau lub tuam txhab me tau tawm hauv kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam nthuav dav tsawg.
Raws li kev tshaj tawm kev lag luam, cov tuam txhab lag luam loj thoob ntiaj teb tam sim no ua haujlwm ntawm lossis ze rau kev siv tag nrho. Cov txheej txheem nthuav dav rau lub peev xwm tshiab preform yog 18 mus rau 24 lub hlis, txhais tau hais tias lub peev xwm pib hauv 2025 yuav tsis ncav cuag kev lag luam mus txog 2027 thaum ntxov. Qee cov neeg tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb, suav nrog Fujikura, tau tshaj tawm tias tsis xav tias yuav muaj peev xwm tshiab txog xyoo 2028.
Cov khoom siv rigidity no yog sib xyaw ua ke los ntawm kev faib tawm tswv yim ntawm kev tsim khoom. Raws li tau tshaj tawm los ntawm ntau qhov chaw lag luam, cov tuam txhab suav hauv Suav teb - suav nrog YOFC, Hengtong, thiab FiberHome - tau hloov qee qhov ntawm lawv cov preform thiab nqus peev xwm mus rau siab dua - paj ntaub tshwj xeeb fibers (xws li G.654.E ultra- qis- poob thiab G.657-) ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau ntxiv. G.652.D fiber ntau rau mainstream telecom thiab FTTH daim ntaub ntawv.
Rau cov neeg muas zaub uas yuav khoomfiber optic cable cov ntaub ntawv, nkag siab txog qhov xwm txheej saum toj kawg nkaus yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev coj ua tiag tiag - sijhawm npaj.
Qhov no txhais li cas rau cov neeg yuav khoom thoob ntiaj teb
Kev ua lag luam tam sim no xav tau txoj hauv kev sib txawv ntawm kev yuav khoom ntau dua li cov koom haum feem ntau tau siv xyoo kaum xyoo dhau los. Ntau qhov kev txiav txim siab ua kom pom tseeb.
Kev faib khoom faib tawm yog tam sim no tsim nyog
Tshaj -kev tso siab rau ib tus neeg xa khoom lossis thaj chaw thaj chaw muaj txiaj ntsig muaj txiaj ntsig hauv cov khoom lag luam- txwv kev lag luam. Thaum Suav tuam txhab lag luam tseem yog cov neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, North American cov neeg yuav khoom tau tshawb nrhiav ntev dua - daim ntawv cog lus nrog cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev xws li Corning, nrog rau cov neeg muag khoom Nyij Pooj. Txawm li cas los xij, txawm tias cov neeg muag khoom no ntsib qhov kev txiav txim siab tseem ceeb.
Rau cov koom haum nrhiav cov saw hlau resilience, ua hauj lwm nrog cov tuam txhab uas muaj kev sib koom ua ke preform-rau- cable muaj peev xwm - qee zaum piav raws li "rod-rau- cable" ntau lawm - muab ntau dua qhov kev kwv yees kwv yees. Qhov no yog qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov haujlwm loj -scale xws lidata center fiber deploymentsqhov twg kev xa khoom qeeb tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau hauv txoj haujlwm dav dav.
Nqe Assumption xav tau kev hloov kho
Raws li kev pom zoo ntawm kev lag luam tam sim no, tus nqi nce siab yuav tsum nyob mus txog tsawg kawg 2026, nrog ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam pom tias tag nrho lub voj voog bull yuav ncua ob mus rau peb xyoos. Cov neeg yuav khoom yuav tsum npaj cov peev nyiaj nyob ib puag ncig tus nqi siab dua thiab xav txog kev kaw hauv cov ntawv cog lus yog tias ua tau, tsis yog cia siab rau qhov chaw yuav khoom.
Specification Planning tseem ceeb dua ua ntej
Nrog rau cov fibers tshwj xeeb uas muaj qee tus nqi nce siab tshaj plaws, kev npaj ceev faj yuav pab tswj cov nqi. Tsis yog txhua daim ntawv thov yuav tsum khoov-insensitive G.657.A2 fiber ntau; rau kev xa tawm sab nraum lub cev, tus qauv G.652.D lossis qis dua -poob G.654.E tej zaum yuav tsim nyog dua thiab, nyob ntawm kev ua lag luam, muaj ntau dua.
Cov koom haum npaj cov ntaub ntawv chaw tsim khoom yuav tsum ntsuas lawv cov kev xav tau fiber ntau thaum ntxov hauv cov txheej txheem tsim. Sab hauv thiab sab hauv- cov ntawv thov khib nyiab tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawmsab hauv fiber optic cablecov kev daws teeb meem tsim los rau siab - ib puag ncig ceev, thaum lub tsev kawm ntawv - nplai kev sib txuas tuaj yeem hu rau kev tsim cov kab sib txawv nkaus.
Tariffs thiab Trade Policy Ntxiv Complexity
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ib puag ncig qhia txog tus nqi ntxiv thiab kev npaj cov kev hloov pauv. Cov nqi se ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau tuaj txawv teb chaws thiab cov khoom siv raw - suav nrog iav preforms - tau nce tus nqi yuav khoom hauv North America thiab Europe. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Build America Buy America (BABA) ua raws li cov kev cai cuam tshuam nrog tsoomfwv cov peev txheej dav dav tsim cov kev txwv ntxiv. Cov xwm txheej no txhawb kom qee tus neeg yuav khoom los ntsuas kev tsim khoom hauv tsev lossis ob lub tswv yim tsim khoom.
Saib tom ntej: Ntev npaum li cas Qhov Kev Tsis Txaus Siab yuav kav ntev?
Ob peb yam qhia tias qhov nruj tam sim no tsis yog luv luv -nyob blip.
Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, AI infrastructure kev nqis peev qhia tsis muaj qhov qhia txog kev qeeb. Raws li Fiber Broadband Association, US fiber ntau txoj kev mais yuav xav tauze li ob npaug ntawm kwv yees li 95,000 mais hnub no mus rau 187,000 los ntawm 2029kom tau raws li qhov xav tau. BEAD qhov kev pab cuam yuav ntxiv qhov kev thov nce ntxiv raws li kev xa tawm pib ua siab ncaj. Kev tiv thaiv- cuam tshuam txog kev noj fiber ntau tseem nce siab thiab tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees.
Ntawm cov khoom siv, lub peev xwm preform tshiab yuav siv sijhawm los nqa online. Txawm hais tias muaj kev nqis peev sai sai, lub peev xwm tshiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo li tsis zoo rau cov khoom siv yooj yim rau cov khoom siv ua ntej 2027. Nyob rau hauv ib ntus, kev ua lag luam yuav zoo li nyob twj ywm ntawm cov sij hawm txuas ntxiv, nce tus nqi, thiab qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov ntev - cov neeg cog lus cog lus rau cov neeg yuav khoom.
Hais tias, tej yam kev mob yuav tsis nyob twj ywm no nruj indefinitely. Cov neeg tsim khoom thoob plaws ntiaj teb tab tom nqis peev hauv kev nthuav dav. Corning's North Carolina muaj peev xwm tsim tau- tawm, kev nqis peev ntxiv los ntawm Suav thiab Nyij Pooj cov neeg tsim khoom, thiab kev nkag mus ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab hauv cov cheeb tsam xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Sab Qab Teb Asia yuav maj mam hloov cov khoom siv - qhov xav tau sib npaug. Cov lus nug yog seb qhov kev thov loj hlob - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog los ntawm AI - txuas ntxiv mus tshaj qhov kev muab khoom ntxiv.
Cov lus nug nquag
Vim li cas cov nqi kho qhov muag fiber ntau tau nce siab heev hauv 2026?
Tus nqi nce siab yog tsav los ntawm kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm AI cov ntaub ntawv chaw nthuav dav sai, kev tiv thaiv- cuam tshuam txog kev siv fiber ntau (tshwj xeeb yog los ntawm fiber ntau-tethered drones), kev siv xov tooj txuas ntxiv thiab kev xa xov hluav taws xob tsis tu ncua, thiab qhov tsis txaus siab ntawm iav preforms - cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau kev tsim fiber ntau. Tom qab xyoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, preform muaj peev xwm tsis tuaj yeem ntsuas sai txaus kom tau raws li qhov xav tau tam sim no.
Ntau npaum li cas fiber ntau lub chaw AI cov ntaub ntawv xav tau piv rau cov chaw ib txwm muaj?
Kev kwv yees sib txawv, tab sis cov chaw lag luam qhia tias AI-cov ntaub ntawv kho kom zoo tuaj yeem xav tau nyob qhov twg los ntawm 16 mus rau 36 npaug fiber ntau dua li cov huab cua los yog cov chaw lag luam, nyob ntawm GPU ntom ntom, network architecture, thiab qib tsis yog - thaiv cov ntaub tsim. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv rau - qhov chaw siv fiber ntau.
Thaum twg cov khoom siv fiber ntau yuav tsum yooj yim?
Raws li kev kwv yees kev lag luam tam sim no, cov khoom siv - kev thov nruj yuav tsum nyob mus txog xyoo 2026 thiab mus rau 2027. Cov peev txheej tshiab feem ntau xav tau 18 txog 24 lub hlis los nqa online. Cov neeg tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb xws li Fujikura tau qhia tias lub peev xwm tshiab muaj txiaj ntsig yuav tsis muaj kom txog thaum 2028. Txawm li cas los xij, maj mam ntxiv peev txheej los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab yuav tsum pib yooj yim los ntawm lig 2027 mus txog rau.
Dab tsi cable hom cuam tshuam feem ntau los ntawm qhov tsis txaus tam sim no?
Standard G.652.D ib leeg- hom fiber ntau - hom siv dav tshaj plaws rau kev sib txuas lus thiab broadband - tau pom qee qhov loj tshaj plaws tus nqi nce. Khoov-insensitive G.657.A1 thiab G.657.A2 fibers, siv nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv chaw, cabling sab hauv tsev, thiab drone daim ntaub ntawv, tau ntsib txawm steeper feem pua nce ntxiv vim muaj kev sib tw xav tau los ntawm ntau qhov chaw. High{11}}ntaus cable hom xws liribbon fiber ntau cablesyog nyob rau hauv tshwj xeeb muaj zog thov rau data center daim ntaub ntawv.
Yuav ua li cas cov neeg yuav khoom tswj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev yuav khoom hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no?
Cov tswv yim tseem ceeb suav nrog kev ruaj ntseg ntev - cov ntawv cog lus ntev nrog preform- cov tuam txhab sib koom ua ke, faib cov khoom sib txawv thoob plaws ntau thaj chaw thiab cov chaw muag khoom, tso cov xaj kom zoo ua ntej ntawm cov phiaj xwm ncua sij hawm, thiab ua tib zoo ntsuas cov fiber ntau tshwj xeeb kom haum rau daim ntawv thov yam tsis muaj tshaj - hais txog. Ua haujlwm nrog avertically integrated cable manufacturersuas tswj nws cov dej ntws ntws tuaj yeem muab kev xa khoom ntau dua.